What is shaping itNo clear shift emerged in this sector.
Our p(doom) - Will we make it?
p(doom) is the estimated probability that artificial intelligence causes an existential catastrophe.
Our number reads current evidence and public sentiment. It is an editorial index, not a scientific forecast.
What does p(doom) mean?
The term is shorthand for the chance that AI leads to human extinction or a permanent loss of humanity’s control over its future. Most p(doom) figures are personal estimates. They depend on what counts as catastrophe and the period being considered.
Batjko Labs tracks a narrower signal. We follow how that risk is being expressed in recent research, reporting, policy and public debate. Fresh evidence moves the reading. Thin or uneven evidence lowers our confidence in it.
p doom is 5%, No daily change, low confidence
p(doom) / daily signallow confidence
5%No daily change
What is moving sentimentPublic
Broadly neutralLess concern than yesterday
No clear shift emerged in this sector.
Updated 1 August 2026
Recent history
No reconstructed past. The line begins when the instrument does.
How should I read it?
Five groups can see the same day differently. The orbital keeps those disagreements visible.
What is shaping itNo clear shift emerged in this sector.
What is shaping itNo clear shift emerged in this sector.
What is shaping itNo clear shift emerged in this sector.
What is shaping itNo clear shift emerged in this sector.
What is moving today’s number?
These sources had the strongest pull on today’s edition.
Upward pressure
No representative citation.
Downward pressure
No representative citation.
Coverage
How broad today’s edition was.
- Connectors
- 2/4 healthy
- Regions
- None represented
- Languages
- None represented
- Classifications
- 0
How is it calculated?
We give recent evidence more weight and cap the influence of each source.
Items from the previous 48 hours decay with an 18-hour half-life. Risk tier, direction, intensity, relevance, and classifier confidence form each pressure. Story clusters and domains are capped at 10%; platforms at 30% within a sector.
Q = .35 health + .25 sectors + .20 regions + .20 sample
Lₜ = logit(pₜ₋₁) + 1.10(.35 + .65Q)pulseₜ
+ .01(anchorₜ − logit(pₜ₋₁))
pₜ = logistic(Lₜ), bounded to 0.5%…95%Who owns this reading?
Batjko Labs publishes a new edition each day when fresh evidence is available. We show the sources, coverage and confidence beside the number so the reading can be challenged.
A change in public debate can move the index even when the underlying danger has not changed. If we have missed or misread something material, write to contact@batjko.com. We correct errors on this page.